Posts Tagged ‘China auto forecast’

Luxury, Premium Car Sales Predicted to Slow in China

IHS Automotive claims segments will slow to single-digit growth.

by on Nov.17, 2014

The growth of sales of luxury vehicles in China, like the Rolls-Royce Ghost, is expected to drop to single digits by 2020.

China remains a tantalizing and promising market for western carmakers, particularly for German makers of premium brands such as Audi, Mercedes and BMW. All of them have major stakes there and expect to see double-digit growth rates again in 2015, according to IHS Automotive.

But advisory group’s forecast also contains a cautionary note as it expects the growth rates will “take a significant hit” in the years to come.

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“In 2014, we forecast the premium segment to achieve combined sales of 1.8 million units, up 21% year over year, while in 2015 we forecast this segment to hit 2.07 million units, up 14.61% year over year,” IHS said in its updated forecast. (more…)

China to Maintain Number One Auto Market Spot

Five-year outlook predicts 55% growth, as U.S. languishes.

by on Apr.22, 2010

China claimed the global sales crown for 2009 and will likely retains it for years, if not forever.

Sales of passenger vehicles in China  are expected to increase from 8.7 million units in 2009 to 13.55 million units in 2015. This increase in sales of passenger cars, SUVs and minivans of more than 55% does not include the sale of millions of light commercial vehicles annually.

If the forecast by J.D. Power and Associates holds true, China will easily remain the world’s largest auto market during the decade to come.

Last year China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market as a result of targeted government incentives and aggressive bank lending, which lasted all year, while U.S. politicians wrangled for six  months over what was a short lived but effect Cash for Clunkers program.

Worse, U.S. banks stopped lending to consumers, even as taxpayers poured billions of dollars into them. Most U.S. market forecasts see it languishing in the 12-13 million unit range for the next five years. (See Chinese Auto Market Grows to 40 Million Annually? )

Automakers have recorded substantial profits during  the past few years in China, whose industrial policy requires joint ventures and substantial investment  by western automakers. Moreover, the Communist party controls the hiring in joint venture plants, thereby ensuring the loyalty of workers.

It is the stated policy of the Chinese government to consolidate the auto sector around Chinese companies, while diminishing the role of western automakers’ once they have learned all they can from them.

Thus far the clearest evidence of the plan is state owned SAIC taking 51% controlling interest of Shanghai GM late last year by forcing a cash-starved GM to sell 1% if its 50% share. (See SAIC Takes Controlling Interest of GM Joint Venture)